Earth observation has become a buyer's market, and the operators are unhappy about it.

The supply of Earth observation data has grown faster than the demand for it. Public programmes provide a large free archive, and commercial constellations have multiplied the paid supply on top.

The consequence is predictable. Price per scene has fallen, and operators who built a business on selling pixels have discovered they are in a commodity market with capital intensive fixed costs.

Where value moved

Towards the analytical layer. A customer in insurance, agriculture or maritime monitoring does not want imagery. They want a flood extent, a yield estimate, or a vessel track, delivered on a schedule and fit to put into a decision.

That is a services business, with services margins, services staffing and services sales cycles. Several satellite operators have found the transition culturally harder than the technical work.

Who is doing well

Companies that started analytical and buy imagery from whoever is cheapest. They carry no launch risk and no depreciation, and they can switch suppliers when a better constellation appears.

What this means for public programmes

Free archives are frequently blamed for compressing the market. The more accurate reading is that they created the analytical industry that now constitutes most of the sector's value, and that industry buys commercial data when the public data is not good enough.